All Commodities Trading Ltd
Western Canadian Commodity Trading Company

Mustard Market Report

The big news items on the mustard front have been the weather and the Stats Can report that came out late last week.

Here are the numbers from Stats Can:
Harvest Production
area yield 2010 2009

SASKATCHEWAN Harvest Production area yield 2010 2009
all wheat 3,990.2 2400 9,510.5 12,805.7
winter wheat 60.7 2900 176.9 412.3
spring wheat 2,812.6 2400 6,693.7 7,987.2
durum wheat 1,116.9 2400 2,639.9 4,406.2
oats 287.3 2800 795.8 1,485.1
barley 797.2 2900 2,313.3 4,080.2
fall rye 42.5 2400 104.1 105.7
flaxseed 329.8 1400 454.7 708.7
canola 2,873.3 1600 4,638.0 5,762.6
dry peas 902.5 2300 2,068.4 2,612.7
lentils 1,100.8 1600 1,727.7 1,480.1
mustard 105.2 1000 108.6 160.6
canary seed 109.3 1300 137.8 134.5
chickpeas 52.5 1600 86.0 57.4
         
ALBERTA Harvest Production area yield 2010 2009
all wheat 2,541.3 3100 7,805.3 7,440.7
winter wheat 70.8 3600 253.1 266.7
spring wheat 2,310.6 3100 7,070.5 6,180.6
durum wheat 159.9 3000 481.7 993.4
oats 226.6 2900 649.3 308.4
barley 1,363.8 3600 4,924.9 3,840.7
fall rye 18.2 2400 44.5 38.1
flaxseed 19.0 1800 34.3 28.4
canola 2,185.3 1900 4,127.7 3,161.5
dry peas 356.2 2700 947.1 666.7
coloured beans 17.7 2000 35.7 49.9
mustard 52.6 1200 63.3 47.7
chickpeas N/A N/A N/A 18.1
         

The reduction in mustard acres are obviously worth noting. Firstly, these numbers are reduced from the last report. Secondly, these numbers are reduced from last year. 171,000 mt this year, down from 207,000mt last year. Lastly, I find the yield estimates of 1000 and 1200 pounds per acre to be a bit generous. On the flip side, there appears to be more carryover than previously anticipated.

The canola and wheat numbers are also way down. In addition, Russia put a ban on exporting wheat. These two key factors have driven up the value of wheat. This means that growers will be more likely to sell their wheat and hold onto their specialty crops like mustard.

The weather has still been uncooperative and sun and heat are badly needed. One night last week, the low was 3 degrees celcius, which is concerning. We keep hoping for heat and sun and hope the rains take a break and we do not encounter frost.

The market response to these issues has been lukewarm. Prices to the grower have raised slightly but growers want quick movement. Europe has bought some yellow and brown and North America has also bought some yellow and oriental.

Please let us know if you require anything.

Kevin Dick, AC Trading Ltd

Bird Food Market Report

The big story in birdfood continues to be the weather. However, some other developments have arose recently. First is the Stat Can report. Here are the numbers:

The big news items on the mustard front have been the weather and the Stats Can report that came out late last week.

Here are the numbers from Stats Can:

SASKATCHEWAN Harvest Production area yield 2010 2009
all wheat 3,990.2 2400 9,510.5 12,805.7
winter wheat 60.7 2900 176.9 412.3
spring wheat 2,812.6 2400 6,693.7 7,987.2
durum wheat 1,116.9 2400 2,639.9 4,406.2
oats 287.3 2800 795.8 1,485.1
barley 797.2 2900 2,313.3 4,080.2
fall rye 42.5 2400 104.1 105.7
flaxseed 329.8 1400 454.7 708.7
canola 2,873.3 1600 4,638.0 5,762.6
dry peas 902.5 2300 2,068.4 2,612.7
lentils 1,100.8 1600 1,727.7 1,480.1
mustard 105.2 1000 108.6 160.6
canary seed 109.3 1300 137.8 134.5
chickpeas 52.5 1600 86.0 57.4
         

 

ALBERTA Harvest Production area yield 2010 2009
all wheat 2,541.3 3100 7,805.3 7,440.7
winter wheat 70.8 3600 253.1 266.7
spring wheat 2,310.6 3100 7,070.5 6,180.6
durum wheat 159.9 3000 481.7 993.4
oats 226.6 2900 649.3 308.4
barley 1,363.8 3600 4,924.9 3,840.7
fall rye 18.2 2400 44.5 38.1
flaxseed 19.0 1800 34.3 28.4
canola 2,185.3 1900 4,127.7 3,161.5
dry peas 356.2 2700 947.1 666.7
coloured beans 17.7 2000 35.7 49.9
mustard 52.6 1200 63.3 47.7
chickpeas N/A N/A N/A 18.1
         

 

MANITOBA Harvest Production area yield 2010 2009
all wheat 1,149.3 2800 3,177.8 3,999.7
winter wheat 97.1 3900 375.6 438.6
spring wheat 1,052.2 2700 2,802.2 3,561.1
oats 167.9 3100 515.9 663.2
barley 170.0 3300 553.0 958.0
fall rye 18.2 3000 54.6 99.1
flaxseed 56.7 1400 81.3 193.0
canola 1183.7 1700 1,973.1 2,828.1
dry peas 38.5 2200 84.4 100.0
soybeans 176.0 1900 342.9 321.1
white beans 16.2 1100 18.1 27.7
coloured beans 32.3 1700 54.4 61.5
sunflower seeds 56.7 1800 104.5 101.9
canary seed 8.9 1300 11.7 7.4
         

Canary

The production numbers are down from the last report. A word of caution…the estimated yield of 1300 lbs per acre is very generous so expect production to be down even more than this report. With the late crop, the pounding rains and lack of sunshine, it is unlikely those yields will be achieved. The Mexico resolution is still not completed although progress has been made, albeit slowly. It seems now that the larger Mexican importers can import the goods as long as they commit to cleaning the product. Demand has been steady, with US and Europe buying. We feel strongly that once Mexico resolves itself, this market will break above the 20 cent level to the grower.

Flax and Canola

Since the last report, the price of flax and canola his risen only slightly. However, that was to be expected, since it move up so dramatically before. Much like canary, flax yields will suffer. If you look at the Stats Can report above, you will see how much the production has dropped. And again, very generous yield numbers in our opinion. Ownership in flax is a good idea, there appears to be very little downside. Canola production is not down as much as flax and is harvested earlier, so the impact is not as significant as it is/will be with flax.

Peas

The maple crop in France is reportedly better than last year, so this will take Europe out of the equation until the French maples are consumed. Yellow and green peas keep moving up very slowly, but up nonetheless. Some good reports of high yields up in the NW corner of Saskatchewan were reported today

Should you need any further information, please let me know

Regards
Kevin Dick